The Power List: the 10 sides to fear at Rugby World Cup 2015
1 New Zealand
Well out in front with 12 months to go, as usual. No one makes opponents pay for mistakes as ruthlessly – and tactically the All Blacks remain the brightest of buttons. Brodie Retallick, Ben Smith, Julian Savea and Beauden Barrett are beginning to rival Richie McCaw and Dan Carter for influence and Kieran Read is the world’s best No 8. Winning a World Cup away from home remains uncharted territory. It gives their rivals a sniff, if only in their imaginations.
IRB ranking 1 World Cup best Winners 1987, 2011
2 South Africa
If the Springboks put their best side out they have the muscle to worry anyone. The question is whether their old stagers can repeat their deeds of 2007; last weekend’s defeat by New Zealand also raised doubts over their composure. A fit Fourie du Preez would make a difference but Willem Alberts, Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen offer serious back-row clout. Both Wales and Argentina could have beaten them this year, though, which suggests the Bok management still have work to do.
IRB ranking 2 World Cup best Winners 1995, 2007
3 England
Fourth in the world rankings but home advantage in 2015 will be massive. Their 3-0 series defeat in New Zealand in June should not obscure the progress made under Stuart Lancaster; this autumn will show how far they still have to travel. Three key questions remain: a) what is their best midfield combination? b) who starts on the wings? c) who are the optimum back row to beat Wales, Australia and Fiji in Pool A? Get that right and the final will be a realistic target. They are a growing threat, no question.
IRB ranking 4 World Cup best Winners 2003
4 Australia
They still occasionally flatter to deceive but have lost only one of their past 10 Tests. Ewen McKenzie is certainly in a better place than a year ago, with Quade Cooper, Will Genia and David Pocock still to be welcomed back into a squad of increasing depth. The big wing Henry Speight is about to become eligible, Israel Folau would skip into any team in the world and Will Skelton could be a real force in 12 months’ time. If Toulon’s Matt Giteau were to return as well, England and Wales really would start to twitch.
IRB ranking 3 World Cup best Winners 1991, 1999
5 Ireland
The more you study the 2015 draw the more you wonder if Ireland can break the habit of a lifetime and come good at a World Cup. With France and Italy in their pool they could advance to the semi-finals at least, with a puncher’s shot at the main prize. Joe Schmidt is an outstanding coach and any squad would love a motivated Paul O’Connell at its heart. Jonny Sexton is heading home from France, some of the younger Irish forwards are maturing nicely and last season’s Six Nations title was no fluke.
IRB ranking 5 World Cup best Quarter-finals 1987, 1991, 1995, 2003, 2011
6 Wales
Warren Gatland played it perfectly at Twickenham last week, announcing Wales would not be showing their full hand before the tournament. In one sentence he managed to keep the opposition guessing, cut himself some slack in the event of autumn defeats and advise his own players to assume nothing. If they can finally beat southern hemisphere opponents this autumn it will be another significant psychological plus; the way they finished in South Africa in June showed how dangerous they can be.
IRB ranking 6 World Cup best Semi-finals 1987, 2011
7 Argentina
Unlucky to lose to both South Africa and Australia in this year’s Rugby Championship, they have regrouped well under coach Daniel Hourcade. Their IRB world ranking of 12 does not reflect their scrummaging strength or their improving back line galvanised by Nicolás Sánchez at fly-half, Joaquín Tuculet at full-back and Juan Martín Hernández at 12. The Pumas’ confidence will also soar when their first Rugby Championship victory materialises.
IRB ranking 12 World Cup best Semi-finals 2007
8 France
It has reached the point, surely, where France cannot get any worse, with five defeats in their past six Tests. As New Zealand can testify, World Cups stir something deep inside the Gallic psyche; either that or the extended break from gruelling Top 14 club duties makes a huge difference. The eligibility of the South African-born Rory Kockott will bring much-needed organisation and Wesley Fofana is world class, but if they reach another final it will reflect poorly on their rivals.
IRB ranking 7 World Cup best Final 1987, 1999, 2011
9 Scotland
Independence or not, Scotland need fresh impetus on the rugby field. Their Kiwi coach Vern Cotter could just be the man to provide it and Glasgow are possibly the most improved side in – ahem – the United Kingdom in recent times. Adam Ashe, Jonny Gray and Stuart Hogg should all develop further over the next 12 months and three wins from Cotter’s first four games made a welcome change. Unfortunately for the Scots, their Pool B opponents – South Africa, Samoa, Japan and the United States – are all improving, too.
IRB ranking 8 World Cup best Semi-finals 1991
10 Samoa
Fiji’s first-choice back line could be spectacular but Samoa are probably the Pacific nation best equipped to dent reputations next autumn. It remains to be seen what their squad will look like, but next year’s historic home Test against the All Blacks will lend an extra edge to their preparations. They have already beaten Italy 15-0 in June and Northampton’s Kahn Fotuali’i and George and Ken Pisi add a touch of class behind the scrum.
IRB ranking 9 World Cup best Quarter-finals 1991, 1995
Rugby World Cup diary: preparing for our All Blacks challenge
Our countdown to the World Cup begins on 1 November, when we play the All Blacks at Soldier Field in Chicago. It’s just six weeks away – and I have only three more games I can play.
My team, New York Athletic Club, is a founding member of the Atlantic Rugby Premiership. There are two teams from New York, two from Boston and one from Atlanta, and we play in the fall and the spring. It’s a good standard but it’s not the week in, week out work you ideally need. I’m unable to go to the Americas Rugby Championship in Canada in October because of work commitments, so my preparation for this World Cup year isn’t going to be quite like it was in 2011.
Back then, I had the luxury of being in professional environments at Sale and Newport. Now, I teach maths and coach rugby at Xavier High School in New York City, and help my wife raise our nine-month-old daughter. I’m very lucky – it’s a great life and yet also a busy one. On NYAC training days it’s really pretty full tilt.
On Mondays and Thursdays, my wife and I are up early with our daughter as we both prepare to head out to work. I jump on the subway and I’m in school in Chelsea by about eight. I teach throughout the day and spend most of my non-teaching time either grading or doing prep work; if I get a chance I work out in the school gym. When the school day ends around three I help run strength and conditioning for the student athletes and coach rugby too. After that I head to the NYAC training field at Randall’s Island, do some skills and speed work, then practice from seven till around nine. By the time I get back to Brooklyn it’s usually closer to 10.
That’s pretty standard during rugby season, but I’m really lucky to have such incredible support from my school. Xavier is a relatively rare place – an American high school with a proud rugby tradition. (the Eagles coach Mike Tolkin used to teach here; he was my first rugby coach.)
Is it up to standard for a guy preparing to face the All Blacks and go to a World Cup? I have to make sure it is. NYAC is a club that is committed to excellence; the Eagles have coaches and systems in place to make sure I’m training the right way every day. So apart from the lack of consistent games I’m doing absolutely everything I can.
Of course, I have the opposite of the problem facing some of our professional players, who play a lot of games. But my wife and my school are totally supportive when I need to go away to join the USA squad.
This year we beat Uruguay to qualify for 2015, we went toe to toe with Japan, and we had a win against Canada which felt like a huge turning point. There’s a great vibe in the squad and as a group we are on the upswing. We have more and more players joining the professional ranks, from Samu Manoa at Northampton and Blaine Scully at Leicester to Scott LaValla at Stade Français and Todd Clever in Japan, and more. With our coaches, we really have faith in our potential to be successful.
Of course, we know who the All Blacks are and what they represent. It will be the biggest event in US rugby history, a tough day at the office, but we’ll stick to our systems, trust each other and use the support of the crowd in Chicago, which will hopefully be 60,000-plus. We had a small dose of what an American crowd can do in Philadelphia last year, when 18,000 helped us push the Maori all the way. We’ll take a swing and see what happens. Sports history tells us anything can.
It will be a great way to start our countdown to 20 September 2015, when we’ll kick-off against the Samoans in Brighton. Our goal is to get out of Pool B. South Africa, Scotland and Japan are our other opponents so we know we have lot of hard work ahead. But we’ve come through some pretty tough times that have helped us to grow. It was certainly disappointing not to have beaten Scotland in Houston this past June. Now our performances have improved and we think we have the ability to be right in the thick of it at the World Cup.
That’s where I hope to be, thanks to the continued support of my school, my coaches, NYAC and my family. If I’m fortunate enough to stay healthy and to stay in the team, it will probably be my last chance to pull on a USA jersey. I’ve got a family now, and a career I really enjoy. So I’m looking forward to the challenge ahead.
Scrum-half Mike Petri has 44 caps for the USA, and played at the 2007 and 2011 World Cups. In 2010-2011 he played for Sale Sharks and Newport Gwent Dragons